Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
The Globe is going with a pretty click-bait-y title. But, I’ve seen others call for coordinating federal immigration numbers with infrastructure planning by municipalities and provinces. It looks like National Bank is on the same wavelength.
“The federal government’s decision to open the immigration floodgates during the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in a generation has created a record imbalance between housing supply and demand. According to Statistics Canada, the working-age population surged 238,000 in Q2. That was the largest quarterly increase on record and 6.8 standard deviations from the historical norm of 82,000 per quarter. Unfortunately, Canadian homebuilders can’t keep up with this influx. Housing starts for Q2 2023 stood at 62,000 units (or 247,000 annualized). At just 0.26, the ratio of housing starts to working-age population growth fell to a new and stands at less than half its historical average of 0.61 (the ratio is normally below 1 to account for the fact that there is more than one person per household). To meet demand, builders would need to break ground on 144,000 units per quarter (or 576K annualized), double the best performance ever!
At an absolute bare minimum, post-secondary institutions should show students have decent housing before visas are granted.
Bonus points to the fact that all trades jobs are under paid and most are understaffed. Gonna be hard to build new homes when the home builders are too hungry to work.
As one of those folks myself, thanks for thinking of us. The worst of it for me is our city is short on concrete workers & framers, they moved to Ontario in 2020 when things shut down. So now us downstream trades like sheetrock, electrical, & carpenters end up working part time, because projects are trickling out. I haven’t worked in 2 weeks. August is usually so busy I can’t even consider booking vacation. Now it’s dead.
So then we exit that job, move to another industry, and the entire building capacity has shrunk when we need it to grow. So at least pay us well, so we can survive this push-pull supply chain nonsense.
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Bonus points to the fact that all trades jobs are under paid and most are understaffed. Gonna be hard to build new homes when the home builders are too hungry to work.
As one of those folks myself, thanks for thinking of us. The worst of it for me is our city is short on concrete workers & framers, they moved to Ontario in 2020 when things shut down. So now us downstream trades like sheetrock, electrical, & carpenters end up working part time, because projects are trickling out. I haven’t worked in 2 weeks. August is usually so busy I can’t even consider booking vacation. Now it’s dead.
So then we exit that job, move to another industry, and the entire building capacity has shrunk when we need it to grow. So at least pay us well, so we can survive this push-pull supply chain nonsense.