Economists say there are a number of factors driving up food prices, but they expect food inflation to slow over time. Here's a look at what’s behind Canada’s high grocery prices and what to expect in the coming months.
TLDR; climate change, Russia, supply chain not recovered, labor shortages; more price increases expected :/
I would imagine part of it is related to the same reasons why my business’s prices are still high: rapidly rising insurance and increased costs of materials due to supply lines that were negatively impacted due to the slow down that was caused by COVID.
I’ve had literally dozens of customers in the last two years look at my quotes, balk and then go shopping for a better deal only to come back to me when they realize this is the new normal. Then they have to deal with the fact that contractors like me are booking new projects for 2025-26.
I think your comparison of your industry to the grocery industry likely isn’t particularly akin, the grocery industry is much more…peculiar, or at least idiosyncratic than most, which is illustrated by the price of groceries not being in line with inflation.
the grocery industry is much more…peculiar, or at least idiosyncratic than most
In what way?
Inflation is only concerned with the value of the currency. Like everything on the other side of the transaction, food has its own independent value. One that has risen, largely due the Ukraine conflict reminding people how vulnerable the food supply chain is, and them now seeing food as being more valuable than in the recent past. They are willing to pay more – much more, in a lot of cases – because of that.
Let’s not forget the farm gate price peaked in 2022 at around ~100% over 2018 prices – for a number of reasons, but the EU fertilizer plant shutdown quickly followed by loss of access to Russian fertilizer being a primary driver. That is what you’re currently feeling at the grocery store. The farm gate price is now down ~50% off the peak. You will start to see that roll into the grocery store within the next year. Remember, wholesale food is largely purchased on futures contracts. You, at the store, are mostly buying what the farmer sold in 2021-2022 right now.
Frankly, the grocery industry is one of the least idiosyncratic markets around.
See I have a feeling the bullshit is coming further upstream. The core providers are using covid to gauge business further down, then the smaller businesses are passing on the cost and in some cases adding even more on top because of “covid”.
The whole thing smells to high heaven as the assholes at the top are making money hand over fist.
The buyer sets the price. Inflation tells half the story, but the other half is that the people generally believe that things like food are worth more now. When the Ukraine conflict began, people started seeing famine as a real threat, which put them in “Oh shit, I’d better not take this thing for granted anymore!” mode.
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I would imagine part of it is related to the same reasons why my business’s prices are still high: rapidly rising insurance and increased costs of materials due to supply lines that were negatively impacted due to the slow down that was caused by COVID.
I’ve had literally dozens of customers in the last two years look at my quotes, balk and then go shopping for a better deal only to come back to me when they realize this is the new normal. Then they have to deal with the fact that contractors like me are booking new projects for 2025-26.
I think your comparison of your industry to the grocery industry likely isn’t particularly akin, the grocery industry is much more…peculiar, or at least idiosyncratic than most, which is illustrated by the price of groceries not being in line with inflation.
In what way?
Frankly, the grocery industry is one of the least idiosyncratic markets around.
See I have a feeling the bullshit is coming further upstream. The core providers are using covid to gauge business further down, then the smaller businesses are passing on the cost and in some cases adding even more on top because of “covid”.
The whole thing smells to high heaven as the assholes at the top are making money hand over fist.
The buyer sets the price. Inflation tells half the story, but the other half is that the people generally believe that things like food are worth more now. When the Ukraine conflict began, people started seeing famine as a real threat, which put them in “Oh shit, I’d better not take this thing for granted anymore!” mode.