The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary is in Milwaukee, airing on Fox News and featuring Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie and others but not Trump
i hate them as much as you, but always good to get intel on the enemy
Any thoughts from the Beeple on how last night’s debate affected the primary field? I did not watch it, but i always like the read the analysis after.
Sounds like Vivek Ramaswamy got the biggest boost, but who knows how durable that will be. I have a hard time envisioning xenophobic Trump voters picking Ramaswamy when they probably can’t even pronounce his name. They pronounce it on Fox News, sure, but many voters don’t watch or even follow the news.
It’s hard to say because I’m not a Republican. So while some of the candidates – basically everyone other than Vivek…and maybe Pence, but even he’s pretty traditional as a pol – seemed fine to me, I’m not they’re target audience, right? With Trump still polling ridiculously high compared to any of the field from the last night, that kinda tells me that none of these people stand a chance. I don’t even know what it would take for Trump to lose frontrunner status. I’m not even convinced that him going to jail, if it happens, changes that.
Vivek certainly made a splash and definitely falls in with Trump voters. But then why wouldn’t Trump supporters just vote for Trump? Is there really a large enough faction of the party or base that can separate Trump from Trumpism? In that they’re done with Trump the person but still want Trump the idea? Idk. And like you said, I can’t imagine Trump voters willingly voting for a brown man with a “strange name.” We saw how people reacted last time a brown man with a “funny name” was actually elected! At least Nikki Haley is able to pass as a white woman, even though she too shares Vivek’s Indian heritage.
I suppose we’ll see what happens by the next debate in September. The polling requirements to be at the next debate will increase, so I suspect we’ll lose at least a couple from last night. Not that it may matter as long as Trump is the frontrunner by a country mile or two.
yeah this whole thing strikes me as a weird exercise. the GOP is clearly still on the fence about whether they want to stick with Trump. I think your point about trying to divorce Trump from Trumpism is very salient. I guess this is what primaries are about: the party doesn’t want to make this decision, so they’re leaving it to the base and the candidates to hash it out. Personally, I love watching them squirm. i’m sure by the next debate they’ll be even more at each others’ throats.
FWIW my elderly father, who is a two time Trump voter, admitted that he couldn’t pronounce Ramaswamy’s name right but thought that he’d be a better candidate this time than Trump himself. That’s only one person but if he would make the switch I have to imagine there’s a bunch more as there’s nothing special about my dad. He’s just another Fox News watching Boomer Republican.
That’s good to know! I agree, I think the opinion of Fox News boomer dads is actually very valuable. They’ve proven that they are a powerful voting bloc.
See, I would love to know how widespead that idea is. I know there are some Trump supporters who are tiring of Trump the person and all the controversy surrounding him, but love the idea of Trump. But do they form a significant number? Polling currently suggets no, but it’s also early in the process.
Imagine if Vivek did start rivaling Trump. Could you imagine the shitshow that’d be? Terrifying. I wouldn’t know whether to laugh or cry.
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Any thoughts from the Beeple on how last night’s debate affected the primary field? I did not watch it, but i always like the read the analysis after.
Sounds like Vivek Ramaswamy got the biggest boost, but who knows how durable that will be. I have a hard time envisioning xenophobic Trump voters picking Ramaswamy when they probably can’t even pronounce his name. They pronounce it on Fox News, sure, but many voters don’t watch or even follow the news.
It’s hard to say because I’m not a Republican. So while some of the candidates – basically everyone other than Vivek…and maybe Pence, but even he’s pretty traditional as a pol – seemed fine to me, I’m not they’re target audience, right? With Trump still polling ridiculously high compared to any of the field from the last night, that kinda tells me that none of these people stand a chance. I don’t even know what it would take for Trump to lose frontrunner status. I’m not even convinced that him going to jail, if it happens, changes that.
Vivek certainly made a splash and definitely falls in with Trump voters. But then why wouldn’t Trump supporters just vote for Trump? Is there really a large enough faction of the party or base that can separate Trump from Trumpism? In that they’re done with Trump the person but still want Trump the idea? Idk. And like you said, I can’t imagine Trump voters willingly voting for a brown man with a “strange name.” We saw how people reacted last time a brown man with a “funny name” was actually elected! At least Nikki Haley is able to pass as a white woman, even though she too shares Vivek’s Indian heritage.
I suppose we’ll see what happens by the next debate in September. The polling requirements to be at the next debate will increase, so I suspect we’ll lose at least a couple from last night. Not that it may matter as long as Trump is the frontrunner by a country mile or two.
yeah this whole thing strikes me as a weird exercise. the GOP is clearly still on the fence about whether they want to stick with Trump. I think your point about trying to divorce Trump from Trumpism is very salient. I guess this is what primaries are about: the party doesn’t want to make this decision, so they’re leaving it to the base and the candidates to hash it out. Personally, I love watching them squirm. i’m sure by the next debate they’ll be even more at each others’ throats.
FWIW my elderly father, who is a two time Trump voter, admitted that he couldn’t pronounce Ramaswamy’s name right but thought that he’d be a better candidate this time than Trump himself. That’s only one person but if he would make the switch I have to imagine there’s a bunch more as there’s nothing special about my dad. He’s just another Fox News watching Boomer Republican.
That’s good to know! I agree, I think the opinion of Fox News boomer dads is actually very valuable. They’ve proven that they are a powerful voting bloc.
See, I would love to know how widespead that idea is. I know there are some Trump supporters who are tiring of Trump the person and all the controversy surrounding him, but love the idea of Trump. But do they form a significant number? Polling currently suggets no, but it’s also early in the process.
Imagine if Vivek did start rivaling Trump. Could you imagine the shitshow that’d be? Terrifying. I wouldn’t know whether to laugh or cry.