This is true if it-only-goes-up. Prices in the GTA for example have been flat since they came down from the peak in 2022:
So I’m only ignoring price appreciation because not all markets in Canada are upwards moving and I’m not betting it’s gonna go up or down.
If you bought at the peak then lost your job and had to sell you’d have lost your down payment. The 5x leverage works both ways. Such people weren’t as lucky as you and they do exist.
If prices stagnate and a renter saves more on housing than you pay in equity, at the end of your mortgage, they’d be able to buy your house with their savings and live just as comfortably without paying rental market prices.
So yeah, buying is a far better investment today, only if you bet it’s going to go up. And only if you make enough money (200K to comfortably support the below-median 740K scenario above) so that you’re able to absorb shocks without being forced to sell at an unfavorable time/price. It has been true for a while and if (when) interest rates fall, prices are likely to go up, but that would only happen because it would become cheaper to carry the higher mortgages required to inflate the prices further, because incomes are not rising nearly as fast.
In my opinion (and I think the article’s) buying today with lower income where you have little buffer left after paying those 5K is a recipe for disaster. I would rent when significantly cheaper than buying, buy when similar or cheaper than renting.
Flat since 2022… It’s barely 2024 and central banks had to increase interest rates by 4% due to inflation in that period. They’re now talking about dropping that interest rate and the real estate market is already salivating.
Your argument about buying at the peak and losing your job is not useful, of course it has some limited risk, but you’re talking about a few thousand people losing their down payment due to vs a few million making absolute bucket loads of money. You could get hit by a car tomorrow too, doesn’t mean you should make financial decisions based on that small potential that something bad will happen to you.
“If prices stagnate” - That’s a big If, historically speaking.
I’m 100% betting housing prices continue to rise, the government has no interest in actually decreasing the cost of housing from a political perspective. The majority of Canadian families own their own home, especially older Canadians who vote more frequently than younger people. They may try to keep it from going up so fast, but any growth is still going to make purchasing a better decision. It will not become politically viable to crash the housing market until home ownership rates drop 10-20% off current values, and that’s going to take decades.
I literally bet my house on this, We bought a home that’s significantly bigger than I need right now because I expect my three school aged children will not be able to move out in 10 years and will need to live at home with us for a significant amount of time. There’s even enough space on the property to build a secondary dwelling unit (and zoning allows this) for one of them to have their own home.
As I said, it’s a bet. You acknowledge that. I’m not betting but I’m looking at the situation today for someone who’d have to buy today, as is the article.
I don’t disagree with the political assessment however you’re missing some details that make your bet seem less risky. Which is totally alright since you’ve already made it. 😅
Speaking of people making boatloads of money, no one has made any money unless they bought a second property or are willing to downgrade. Anyone who’s only property has grown in price and they can’t afford to move to a cheaper one has made nothing except for their taxes have gone up. (Because they’d have to spend what they get for theirs on the one they have to buy, which has also gone up as much as theirs.)
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This is true if it-only-goes-up. Prices in the GTA for example have been flat since they came down from the peak in 2022:
So I’m only ignoring price appreciation because not all markets in Canada are upwards moving and I’m not betting it’s gonna go up or down.
If you bought at the peak then lost your job and had to sell you’d have lost your down payment. The 5x leverage works both ways. Such people weren’t as lucky as you and they do exist.
If prices stagnate and a renter saves more on housing than you pay in equity, at the end of your mortgage, they’d be able to buy your house with their savings and live just as comfortably without paying rental market prices.
So yeah, buying is a far better investment today, only if you bet it’s going to go up. And only if you make enough money (200K to comfortably support the below-median 740K scenario above) so that you’re able to absorb shocks without being forced to sell at an unfavorable time/price. It has been true for a while and if (when) interest rates fall, prices are likely to go up, but that would only happen because it would become cheaper to carry the higher mortgages required to inflate the prices further, because incomes are not rising nearly as fast.
In my opinion (and I think the article’s) buying today with lower income where you have little buffer left after paying those 5K is a recipe for disaster. I would rent when significantly cheaper than buying, buy when similar or cheaper than renting.
Flat since 2022… It’s barely 2024 and central banks had to increase interest rates by 4% due to inflation in that period. They’re now talking about dropping that interest rate and the real estate market is already salivating.
Your argument about buying at the peak and losing your job is not useful, of course it has some limited risk, but you’re talking about a few thousand people losing their down payment due to vs a few million making absolute bucket loads of money. You could get hit by a car tomorrow too, doesn’t mean you should make financial decisions based on that small potential that something bad will happen to you.
“If prices stagnate” - That’s a big If, historically speaking.
I’m 100% betting housing prices continue to rise, the government has no interest in actually decreasing the cost of housing from a political perspective. The majority of Canadian families own their own home, especially older Canadians who vote more frequently than younger people. They may try to keep it from going up so fast, but any growth is still going to make purchasing a better decision. It will not become politically viable to crash the housing market until home ownership rates drop 10-20% off current values, and that’s going to take decades.
I literally bet my house on this, We bought a home that’s significantly bigger than I need right now because I expect my three school aged children will not be able to move out in 10 years and will need to live at home with us for a significant amount of time. There’s even enough space on the property to build a secondary dwelling unit (and zoning allows this) for one of them to have their own home.
As I said, it’s a bet. You acknowledge that. I’m not betting but I’m looking at the situation today for someone who’d have to buy today, as is the article.
I don’t disagree with the political assessment however you’re missing some details that make your bet seem less risky. Which is totally alright since you’ve already made it. 😅
Speaking of people making boatloads of money, no one has made any money unless they bought a second property or are willing to downgrade. Anyone who’s only property has grown in price and they can’t afford to move to a cheaper one has made nothing except for their taxes have gone up. (Because they’d have to spend what they get for theirs on the one they have to buy, which has also gone up as much as theirs.)