Three polls conducted after his second indictment show Trump in a comfortable first place.
Okay, but why do we care about polls as much now? Haven’t they been spectacularly wrong for the past few election cycles? Not all, but I definitely feel like the overall accuracy and reliability of most national and state polling has been exceptionally poor.
In any case, I’m not at all surprised that his supporters aren’t bothered by the indictments. It’s a cult. Like, actually.
Polling has gotten really difficult because so it’s much harder to reach people by phone. Republican primary voters are more likely to be old people with landlines, so I would expect polls of them to be more accurate and any inaccuracies to favor Trump.
You are not logged in. However you can subscribe from another Fediverse account, for example Lemmy or Mastodon. To do this, paste the following into the search field of your instance: !politics@beehaw.org
In-depth political discussion from around the world; if it’s a political happening, you can post it here.
Guidelines for submissions:
Where possible, post the original source of information.
If there is a paywall, you can use alternative sources or provide an archive.today, 12ft.io, etc. link in the body.
Do not editorialize titles. Preserve the original title when possible; edits for clarity are fine.
Do not post ragebait or shock stories. These will be removed.
Do not post tabloid or blogspam stories. These will be removed.
Social media should be a source of last resort.
These guidelines will be enforced on a know-it-when-I-see-it basis.
Polling has gotten really difficult because so it’s much harder to reach people by phone. Republican primary voters are more likely to be old people with landlines, so I would expect polls of them to be more accurate and any inaccuracies to favor Trump.
I thought so as well, but I literally just read this and my opinion of polls has changed:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy
It’s a fascinating and educating read. Essentially, polls last year were historically accurate.