Sir_Osis_of_Liver
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MMP is difficult to explain to anyone uninterested in electoral reform, ie the majority of voters. Include things like party lists and members at large, and you can get some pretty significant drawbacks. There was also the more likely possibility of constitutional issues than with STV or ranked ballot, given the seat allocations outlined in the constitution.
Ranked or STV are easy to explain, ranked especially. Ridings and the ballots don’t even need to change. Instead of an X, put numbers in the circle. Easy-peasy to explain.
Anyone with experience in politics knows why the Liberals did what they did.
IF the Liberals had pushed through the legislation, the CPC and Bloc were both going to portray it a Liberal power grab, and that message would definitely get traction. The CPC had already said they’d revert back to FPTP, and the Bloc was making noises that they’d back them up.
That’s why the Liberals went out of their way to do what they did. What they didn’t expect was the NDP going all or nothing on MMP, a system that laypeople find difficult to understand, and certainly not one to be explained easily in a sound bite.
Internal Liberal polling, not the dog and pony online poll, found that most people didn’t care, but could easily be convinced it was a power grab. They were putting a lot of effort in something that had no upside, but a pile of potential downside.
They cut their losses, and aside from online forums, paid little price for it.
No, he didn’t. This is the fantasy narrative that election reformers tell themselves.
The reality is that these efforts always blow up because there is never a consensus on what to change it to, and the general public just doesn’t care.
And with the blowback they got for their efforts, they won’t touch it again for at least another 15-20 years. The CPC would never even consider it. The NDP are as far from power as ever being essentially dead east of Ontario, and spotty through the rest of the country.
So people can sulk if they want to, but it’s going to be status quo for the foreseeable future.
So just like now then. The Liberals are backed by the NDP and maintain power.
Germany has been dominated by two parties since the war under MMP. And proportional representation has done absolutely nothing to inhibit the right wing authoritarians coming into power in much of Eastern Europe, and making gains in Western Europe.
In Israel, Netanyahu’s Likud control government with the support of 24% of the electorate in the last election. He had to put together a dog’s breakfast of even more extreme parties to do it, but that’s always a possibility in that sort of system.
Comments from people who have never had real exposure to the political system are useful as tits on a fish.
Being an MP or MLA is an absolute grind. Even more so now with myriad anonymous threats being levied at not only you but your family. They have some reimbursements, but inevitably end up spending some of that pay on expenses.
And for the most part, they aren’t rich.
Here is the list from Manitoba MPs:
Niki Ashton NDP university lecturer
James Bezan CPC Rancher, crop adjuster
Ben Carr Lib Teacher, consultant
Raquel Dancho CPC –
Terry Duguid Lib Non-profit organizer
Ted Falk CPC Construction company owner
Leah Gazan NDP Lecturer
Kevin Lamoureaux Lib ATC assistant & Military
Branden Leslie CPC –
Larry Maguire CPC Farmer, Lobbyist
Dan Mazier CPC Pres Keystone Agricultural Producers
Marty Morantz CPC Lawyer
Dan Vandal Lib Middleweight Boxer, Social worker
Bezan (CPC), Falk (CPC), Maguire (CPC), Mazier (CPC) and Morantz (CPC) are pretty well off. The rest are doing okay, but hardly rich.
Dancho (CPC) and Leslie (CPC) went from school right into politics.
A former MP that I new pretty well was a teacher and served on a small city council, an unpaid position in those days, before getting into federal, and then provincial politics. He was the hardest working person I knew.
He got calls at all hours as a federal MP regarding garbage pickup and street plowing FFS. Some constituents were completely clueless as to what level of government does what. He’d listen and try to direct them to the right people, and the only thing he got in return was abuse.
Corporate taxes used to cover over 30% of government revenue, it’s 10% now. The top marginal income tax rate peaked in the 1960s at somewhere around 80% on income exceeding ~3M/year (today’s money). We’ve had 4 decades of tax cuts while the cost of delivering services has increased more or less with the inflation rate. Private equity funds now have favourable tax treatment, and stock buybacks, previously considered illegal stock manipulation is a common practice. And so on and so forth.
If you want what you had, you have to do what you did.
Pierre Trudeau was written off for each of his last three elections. He ended up in power from 1968 until 1984, broken only by the 7 months of minority PC government under Clark.
The Liberals aren’t campaigning, while PP has been burning cash in election mode for months. Once the writ is dropped, it’s a completely different ball game. The Liberals were in third place behind the CPC and NDP when the writ was dropped in 2015. Campaigns matter.
Trudeau’s government isn’t a far right as the Chretien Liberals, let alone the Mulroney PCs.
People forget the cost cutting and devolution of healthcare and other programs that occurred under Chretien in the name of balancing the federal budget, a policy they kept right through the Chretien and Martin years.
They actively avoided getting into social policy reform as much as possible. For example, weed legalization was absolutely shot down by that government. In this aspect they were largely a care-taker government.
Trudeau has expanded public programs, legalized weed, prioritized diversity in cabinet, etc.
That’s been a thing forever in the Atlantic provinces. Fish, forestry, military or move.
I ended up moving from NB in 2009, with the company saying I could move back when work improved. Fifteen years later, I’m still in the West and the people who made the promise are long gone.
I’m hoping to retire and move home in a few years. I’ve had enough.
“Oh, I miss the green and the woods and streams
And I don’t like cowboy clothes
But I like being free and that makes me
An idiot, I suppose”
Every almost every season there are a few fishermen who get lost at sea. The CG and DFO will search for a few days then call off the search. It’s tragic, but it’s the way it is.
Search was suspended after 36 hours. Only one body was found.
The estimate is that 60,000 tonnes of material will need to be sifted through, an effort that will take up to three years and between $84M and $186M dollars, with absolutely no guarantee of success.
It’s a performative act and waste of resources. I’d much rather see the $90M go towards funding for addictions and mental health supports, and for homeless shelters. Care for the living, the dead no longer care.
Alberta currently has the most expensive residential electricity by far at 25.8¢ /kWh for the first 1000kWh including all fees. Saskatchewan is second most expensive at 19.9¢ /kWh.
Ontario is down at 14.1¢ /kWh and Manitoba is at 10.2¢ /kWh. Quebec is cheapest at 7.8¢ /kWh.
Consider a standard sedan with two axles and a total weight of 2 tons. Assuming an even distribution, each of its axles would bear the weight of 1 ton. Now consider a semitruck with eight axles and a weight of 40 tons – each of its axles would weigh 5 tons. The relative damage done by each axle of the truck can be calculated with the following equation, and comes out to 625 times the damage done by each axel of the sedan.
Considering that the truck has eight axles and the sedan has two, the relative damage caused by the entire semitruck would be 625 x (8/2) – 2,500 times that of the sedan.
https://www.insidescience.org/news/how-much-damage-do-heavy-trucks-do-our-roads
Fairly sure that truckers aren’t paying 2500x what passenger vehicles are paying in taxes/fees.
also from the same article:
“The damage due to cars, for practical purposes, when we are designing pavements, is basically zero. It’s not actually zero, but it’s so much smaller – orders of magnitude smaller – that we don’t even bother with them,” said Karim Chatti, a civil engineer from Michigan State University in East Lansing.
Meanwhile in New Brunswick, NBPower is offering free heat pumps to homeowners with an income below $70k/yr.
My ex just had her 30 year old oil furnace replaced. No cost to her. Hers was a whole house unit, not a mini-split. Cost would have been $15k or so.
That’s a bullshit narrative.
The problem was, the Liberals favoured ranked ballot but would consider STV, the NDP wouldn’t support anything other than MMP, the CPC wouldn’t support any change, and the Bloc just wanted to play spoiler. The Liberals were in a minority on the committee because they needed to be to ensure legitimacy. If they’d just imposed a system, the CPC had already said they’d overturn it whenever they gained power. Having cross-party agreement would have made that much more difficult. The only system they could get agreement on was MMP, which is what the committee recommended.
MMP is good for proportionality, but it can have issues with party lists, members not tied to geographic areas can be difficult to remove, and responsibility for geographic areas is shared, making it easier to dodge. Whether MMP would even pass constitutional muster is an open question. The biggest drawback is explaining the system to a general public who only have known a one vote, one member, one riding system. Ranked or STV are much easier to explain and the current ridings wouldn’t need to change.
Anyway, the Bloc and CPC were going to campaign hard on calling any change a Liberal power grab. Internal polling (not the dog and pony show web poll) showed that most voters didn’t care about the issue, but the “Liberal Power Grab” would gain traction. With the CPC promising to roll back any changes, the whole thing looked more and more like an effort in futility.
In the end, they decided to take their lumps and move on. After all the heat they took for even trying, as far as the Liberals are concerned, the issue is dead. Basically a similar story arc as every time a provincial government has looked at it.
The CPC never wanted it in the first place, and won’t bring it up if in power. The NDP essentially don’t exist at the federal level east of Ontario, have a shot at maybe a handful of seats on Ontario, a few more in Manitoba, will be shut out of Saskatchewan and Alberta but will pick up seats in BC. The Bloc will continue to play spoiler, and the Greens, after their self immolation, are irrelevant at the federal level.
I live on the Assiniboine near the Legislature, and see a fair number of people bike every day regardless.
When the river freezes deep enough, and they have the ice trail prepped like last year, there were lots. Depending on neighbourhood, it was actually quicker getting downtown in winter than in summer.
Total Hydro-electric for 2023 297,625,045MWh
Total nuclear MWh for 2023 70,143,731MWh
Total Wind MWh for 2023 30,464,472MWh
Total Solar MWh for 2023 4,327,641MWh
(Jan-Oct. Figures for Nov,Dec not available yet)
For the record, the largest capacity reactor at Pickering, the 530MWe unit B5 produced 4,042,003MWh in its best year (2019, 87% capacity factor), roughly 300,000 MWh less than current solar installations did in 2023.
Wind and solar capacity has been growing in the vicinity of 11% a year. Nuclear hasn’t, as it peaked in 1993 at 15,800MWe, and has been stalled at 13,500 since 2012, when Gentilly 2 was shut down for the last time.
The cost of installed wind is averaging out to roughly $1300/kW globally on an equalized basis. The reactors at Vogtle, the last new-build reactors commissioned in North America, are currently sitting at approximately $13,000/kW.
Hasn’t made much difference in Australia. Much of the last 50 years has been a coalition between the right-wing Liberals and the right-wing, rural grievance, National party.
Along with different voting systems come different voting patterns. We could easily end up with coalition of the CPC , Bloc, and similar regional grievance parties.
Some people seem to think that a change to a proportional system would shut out the CPC. There is absolutely no guarantee that that would be the case.
Likud in Israel has little popular support, something like 30% in the last election, but they managed to cobble together an assortment of extremist parties to gain power. It’s not much different in Italy, Hungary, Türkiye etc, where various fascist parties have gained and maintain control.
Just to be clear, I’m not oppose to change. I’m pointing out that while the voting system is important, having an engaged and educated voter is importanter.
That was the problem the first go-around, the Liberals favoured ranked ballot but would consider STV, the NDP wouldn’t support anything other than MMP, the CPC wouldn’t support any change, and the Bloc just wanted to play spoiler. The Liberals were in a minority on the committee. The only system they could get agreement on was MMP, which is what was recommended.
MMP is good for proportionality, but it can have issues with party lists, members not tied to geographic areas can be difficult to remove, and responsibility for geographic areas is shared, making it easier to dodge. The biggest drawback is explaining the system to a general public who only have known a one vote, one member, one riding system. Ranked or STV are much easier to explain and the current riding system doesn’t need to change.
Anyway, the Bloc and CPC were going to campaign hard on calling any change a Liberal power grab. Internal polling (not the dog and pony show web poll) showed that most voters didn’t care about the issue, but the “Liberal Power Grab” would gain traction. With the CPC promising to roll back any changes, the whole thing looked more and more like an effort in futility.
In the end, they decided to take their lumps and move on. After all the heat they took for trying, as far as the Liberals are concerned, the issue is dead.
Four AP1000s have been built in China. The Chinese also have an agreement with Westinghouse to further develop the design, so more are under construction, but those are heavily modified Chinese variants.
Four AP1000s were under construction in the US, two at the Vogtle generating station in Georgia, and two at the V.C Summer plant in South Carolina. The V.C. Summer reactors were cancelled during construction when the initial estimate was revised from $9B to $23B. The Unit 3 at Vogtle has finally completed commissioning and is online, and unit 4 should be completed this year. Costs have exploded from $14B estimate at the beginning of construction to the vicinity of $35B.
There are another 5 reactors planned for Turkey and Poland. I’m not sure where they’re at currently.
For the EPR, the first unit to start construction was Olkiluoto-3 in Finland in 2005. It was supposed to complete commissioning in 2010, but finally was completed in 2022 and entered service in 2023. Costs went from €3.3B to €11B
Taishan 1 & 2 started construction in 2009 and were supposed to be completed in 2013. Taishan-1 entered service in 2018, and Taishan-2 in 2019. Though the third EPR project to start construction, these were the first in service. The final $7.5B cost was roughly double the estimate. Since then, unit 1 was offline for a year due to issues with the fueling. There have been some other reliability issues, some causing brief downtime.
Flamanville-3 started construction in 2007, was supposed to be commissioned in 2012, but is currently projected to be in service late this year. Costs bloated from €3B to a projected €20B at completion.
Hinkley Point C started construction of two EPRs in 2017, though a lot of site prep work started well prior to that. It was supposed to be online in 2023. Currently they’re projecting 2028. Costs have gone from the initial £16B to a projected £33B.
The average age of a French reactor is 37 years. They get an initial license for thirty years then apply for ten year extensions. They have 56 operational reactors now, and have an ongoing ‘grand carénage’ refurbishment for mostly the larger units. The estimate for that was in the vicinity of €55B, though has shifted some what. The smaller, older units are being taken out of service.
More often than not, older reactors in the US are taken out of service rather than refurbished due to the economics. Globally there are 407-413 (definitions vary) operational reactors, down from 438 at the peak in 2002.
That’s not true. The Westinghouse AP1000 got type approval in 2011. The EPR got type approval in the early 2000s. Both are GEN III+ reactors, which are semi-modular and have reduced length and number of pipe-runs and number of pumps, valves and so on. They’ve got 60 year design lives compared to 30 years for the typical Gen II design. It didn’t stop them from being more expensive to build than the prior reactor types.
The EPR2 is currently undergoing certification. It would be a brave utility to roll the dice on a new, untested version of the EPR after the fiascos at Flamanville, Olkiluoto, Taishan and Hinckley.
SMRs to date have been one failure after another. NuScale just cancelled the Idaho project in spite of receiving $4B in government subsidies. X-Energy cancelled plans to go public and laid off 100 staff. Oklo’s Aurora reactor license application was so poor that it was rejected almost immediately by the NRC. Rolls Royce has announced that their £500B SMR program will run out of cash by the end of the year, and so on.
New cost estimates from TerraPower and XEnergy as part of the Department of Energy’s Advanced Reactor Deployment Program are likely to reveal substantially higher cost estimates for the deployment of those new reactor technologies. This would confirm other independent studies on SMR economics.
It’s been reported alternatively as “undergoing scheduled maintenance”, “undergoing unscheduled maintenance”, or “system failure due to cold”. Scheduled maintenance is BS, no one schedules that for peak seasonal demand times. Who knows about the other two.
With the market setup in Alberta, those plants going down caused a spike in electricity spot prices. Generators can make a windfall profit in tight supply times. Residences without contracts will see their price go to something like 32¢/kWh. With the way the Alberta market rules are set up now, there are no penalties for generators voluntarily shutting down in order to bump prices. It’s basically the same market manipulation that Enron was pulling twenty years ago.
Alberta has the highest provincial electricity costs, on average 25¢/kWh, Saskatchewan is second at 20¢/kWh, with the others trailing off from there. Manitoba is something like 10.8¢/kWh and Quebec is cheapest at 8¢/kWh. (typical costs for first 1000kWh including distribution and other fees)
Environmental assessments, negotiations with First Nations, land acquisition/expropriations, not to mention that every little town along any proposed route would be pushing for a stop. Throw in assorted loons and NIMBYS and their legal efforts, and it’s a wonder anything ever gets built. The fact that there are more people makes it much more difficult, not easier.
The initial transcontinental railways were very much a partnership between business and government. And a hugely corrupt one at that.
The Trans Mountain pipeline just going from Alberta to BC port is running at $30B currently. Much of that is due to opposition from locals and their legal efforts and protests. It’s a hugely easier construction/engineering effort to put in a pipeline than an HSR line. Grades aren’t important, a ditch is dug and the line is plopped in then covered. They’re deep enough and flexible enough that most heaving won’t affect it. Throw in some booster stations and Bob’s-your-uncle.
HSR tracks have to be near perfect to ensure stability and there are tight limits on allowable grades/radius etc. Just the route surveys would be a huge challenge.
It’s not just cars, now is it? Thirty percent of all freight in NA is carried by truck (compared to 70% in Europe). If we focus in on “last mile” it’s near 100%. Also, depending on jurisdiction, the gas tax and licensing fees pay for the road infrastructure. If you don’t have a car, you’re not contributing.
That’s why the costs of road infrastructure were initially tolerated, with personal use secondary. Once people got used to the freedom, and car ownership exploded, road works were emphasized.
Having said that, HSR, does nothing for commute times. That’s the domain of buses, light rail, trams, subways and conventional rail. All of which have been neglected, but that’s a separate issue. HSR is also energy intensive, as energy required to move an object is proportional to the square of velocity.
The tracks have to be pretty much prefect to maintain stability. Given the amount of frost heaving we get, that 3x the cost of conventional rail might be extremely optimistic. Sections of track in Sweden, for instance, have been reduced from 200km/h, very much the lower limit of what constitutes HSR, to 130km/h, not far off the current speeds here on some sections, due to track deterioration.
I would like to see all rail infrastructure owned by a crown corp, with private rail companies competing with their own rolling stock, both freight and passenger. They’d pay the crown corp for track/station use, with those funds paying for maintenance and upgrades. That move would greatly improve the rail situation here.
As far as HSR, it an expensive boondoggle waiting to happen.
Regular, reliable rail makes sense. It’s much cheaper to build, cheaper to maintain and the rolling stock is cheaper too. There’s also the energy demand, it increases in proportion to the square of velocity. HSR is just too expensive for the limited benefits.
Almost all of the wear on our roads is from truck traffic, with one maxxed out tractor trailer equaling the wear caused by roughly 10,000 personal vehicles. HSR does nothing to alleviate that.
HSR is 3x the cost of conventional passenger rail. HSR also doesn’t get freight revenue to help defray costs, the traditional way NA passenger rail routes were supported. All revenue is either through ticket sales or government subsidies.
Compounding that, conventional passenger rail hasn’t been profitable since at least the 1950s, one of the reasons both CP and CN were all too eager to pawn off their passenger rolling stock to VIA in the early 70s.
Over the last 3 years, the French rail company SNCF has needed a €35B injection from the government to remain solvent and cover ongoing expenses. This is above existing subsidies.
The German rail company is in similar shape. Deutsche Bahn estimates that it needs €14B for infrastructure upgrades. Their ‘on time’ performance is now down to 75%, which is very low for them.
In China, an estimated 90% of their HSR routes are unprofitable. It is unclear how far the central government will go to prop up these routes.
It always boils down to “speed costs, how fast can you afford to go?” It’s also not a linear relationship.
Here is the average total cost of electricity by province, based on a monthly consumption of 1,000kWh:
Northwest Territories 41.0¢/kWh
Nunavut 35.4¢/kWh
Alberta 25.8¢/kWh
Saskatchewan 19.9¢/kWh
Yukon Territory 18.7¢/kWh
Prince Edward Island 18.4¢/kWh
Nova Scotia 18.3¢/kWh
Nfld & Labrador 14.8¢/kWh
Ontario 14.1¢/kWh
New Brunswick 13.9¢/kWh
British Columbia 11.4¢/kWh
Manitoba 10.2¢/kWh
Quebec 7.8¢/kWh
https://www.energyhub.org/electricity-prices/
The Alberta system exists to funnel money into the private utilities and ensure that electricity remains uncompetitive with fossil fuels.
The $12000 charge from the utility is a “fuck off” fee.
It’s not like the next person to build a house in the area is going to pay for a new distribution transformer. That’s not how things work.
He made the right call in just getting the 30A charger. Even if he drained it down to almost nothing, he’d still be fully charged overnight.
The last power plant I worked on was Chinook generating station near Swift Current, a 350MW combined cycle plant for SaskPower. At $605M is was $75M under budget, you will never hear that on a nuclear project.
The various wind installations are typically fairly close to budget and schedule as well. Hydro is problematic, and that does show in cost overruns, because it is very difficult to predict the geotechnical situation for a given site until excavation starts. Given the stress on the structures, even small differences accumulate rapidly.
The worst thermal plant projects are consistently nuclear.
The refurbishment of Lepreau was supposed to cost $1.5B and take 18 months, it ended up taking $2.5B and just under 4 years to complete.
Flammanville-3 started construction in 2007 was supposed to be operational in 2012. They’re now estimating it will complete commissioning in 2024. Costs have gone from €3.3B to €20B+.
Olkiluoto-3 started construction in 2005, was supposed to be operational in 2010, but only completed commissioning in 2022. Costs went from €3B to €11B, the not to exceed amount in the contract.
Hinkley Point C started about 2016, has been pushed back to 2028 and costs have gone from £16B to an estimated £32B.
Vogtle has been covered, but the V.C Summer plant was no better. Initial estimate was $9B, but the project was cancelled while under construction when the estimated total was projected to exceed $23B.
The Business Council of Alberta wants to fix the productivity problem through immigration instead of having businesses actually fixing their lack of reinvestment directly.
https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/april-2023/the-low-productivity-of-canadian-companies-threatens-our-living-standards/