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Why would home state advantage not matter much despite it being a swing state? (along with Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
If you look at the historical data, home state advantage is only like 1/8 as strong for VP pick as it is for the presidential candidate. Now, this could still be enough to make a difference in Pennsylvania, but there were other factors that made Shapiro a bad pick imo.