THE Liberal Party has surpassed the 30-point threshold for the first time since September 2022 and now sits at 32 per cent, according to EKOS Politics. Indeed, the party is now tied with its vote share in the 2021 election.
Meanwhile, at 39 per cent, the Conservative lead has narrowed to just seven points, a significant shift from the 25-point advantage the party enjoyed in the wake of former finance minister Chrystia Freeland’s resignation a month ago. While the Conservatives would no doubt win the most seats if an election were held tomorrow, it is unlikely they would form a majority government given the renewed Liberal support in Ontario.
According to EKOS Politics, the Liberal resurgence seems to be driven by three factors. First, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation produced a modest but noticeable boost to the party’s standing. Second, the extensive media coverage of the Liberal leadership race accelerated this rise. Finally, the cavalcade of radical announcements from the freshly inaugurated Donald Trump has spurred a renewed sense of national identity, prompting Canadians to rally around their incumbent leaders in a show of solidarity.
Don’t get your hopes up yet. For now only EKOS is showing this swing. It’s an outlier and EKOS have been wrong before. Mainstreet from the 13th puts them at 26, up from 19 in December so perhaps there’s something to it. Cautiously optimistic but still taking it with a bucket of salt myself.
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Finally some good news, hopefully we get Mark Carney as the liberal leader.
Don’t get your hopes up yet. For now only EKOS is showing this swing. It’s an outlier and EKOS have been wrong before. Mainstreet from the 13th puts them at 26, up from 19 in December so perhaps there’s something to it. Cautiously optimistic but still taking it with a bucket of salt myself.