Those were individual public opinion polls. Basically the raw data of a questionnaire which may have been targeting specific areas or demographics.
The 338 data is the best guess at who would win if the election were held today. It takes aggregated polls, ridings, demographics and historical data into account. So it is a much more sophisticated prediction.
However, it notably doesn’t project into the future. That means the odds are not taking into account current trends, so Poilievre’s drop from 100 to 75 is extremely significant. His odds will likely continue declining for some time. The question is where will it taper off and will there be a rebound before the actual election.
I’m also pretty sure from past memory, that the conservatives usually poll a lot better well before an election, but as it nears they drop off significantly.
No guarantee it’s a drop to losing, but pretty sure the drop is a common trend.
To add to this, I don’t think the Carney polls are being factored into the 338 model, because they’re “what if” polls, and don’t reflect voter intentions today. If Carney wins we will probably see even more of a drop in the following weeks.
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Those were individual public opinion polls. Basically the raw data of a questionnaire which may have been targeting specific areas or demographics.
The 338 data is the best guess at who would win if the election were held today. It takes aggregated polls, ridings, demographics and historical data into account. So it is a much more sophisticated prediction.
However, it notably doesn’t project into the future. That means the odds are not taking into account current trends, so Poilievre’s drop from 100 to 75 is extremely significant. His odds will likely continue declining for some time. The question is where will it taper off and will there be a rebound before the actual election.
I’m also pretty sure from past memory, that the conservatives usually poll a lot better well before an election, but as it nears they drop off significantly.
No guarantee it’s a drop to losing, but pretty sure the drop is a common trend.
To add to this, I don’t think the Carney polls are being factored into the 338 model, because they’re “what if” polls, and don’t reflect voter intentions today. If Carney wins we will probably see even more of a drop in the following weeks.