I don’t think they’re going to loop back around soon, because I don’t think iMessage’s market share will explosively grow any time soon. From what I can tell, the only growth in the messenger space seems to occur on Snapchat, the rest seems to have stagnated.
It didn’t take the EU a long time to get here at all. Last May companies were told to report in if their user base came close to 10% of the EU market (ignoring that request would be pretty bad, as in “periodic fines for 5% of worldwide daily revenue” bad). By July, the gatekeepers were notified. By September, the initial conclusion of gatekeepers was made. Now, all objections have been taken into account.
That’s four months to appoint gatekeepers, and four months to complete the investigation and consider objections. In terms of regulations, that’s basically a snap decision, considering these regulations need to take into account the market share and applicable restrictions in 27 different countries.
If Apple’s messenger market share doubles for some reason next month, and they do cross the threshold, they’ll have to have iMessage open to third parties before Christmas. It’s really not that big a deal.
It’s not about the explosive growth (or not) of iMessage. It’s a matter of fact about the legal foothold that Apple now holds. That won’t be dislodged anytime soon. Whether or not Apple can get any market growth moving forward, now the EU will have to re-file any efforts to this ruling to them in the future should they try. That is a big deal. And nothing anyone in trying in the EU will move forward anything near the weight this attempt did.

What legal foothold, exactly? The conclusion that their messaging service isn’t important enough to negatively affect the market?
Whether or not Apple can get any market growth moving forward
If they don’t grow, the EU won’t need to do anything, because the status quo remains.
And nothing anyone in trying in the EU will move forward anything near the weight this attempt did.
The commission that did the initial market research is legally obligated to continuously monitor markets. This isn’t a one-off thing, nor was it an “attempt” at anything. If the EU wanted iMessage to be opened up, they would’ve written the law better.
The DMA is a law to protect against de-facto gatekeepers, and iMessage just isn’t important enough to be called a gatekeeper.
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I don’t think they’re going to loop back around soon, because I don’t think iMessage’s market share will explosively grow any time soon. From what I can tell, the only growth in the messenger space seems to occur on Snapchat, the rest seems to have stagnated.
It didn’t take the EU a long time to get here at all. Last May companies were told to report in if their user base came close to 10% of the EU market (ignoring that request would be pretty bad, as in “periodic fines for 5% of worldwide daily revenue” bad). By July, the gatekeepers were notified. By September, the initial conclusion of gatekeepers was made. Now, all objections have been taken into account.
That’s four months to appoint gatekeepers, and four months to complete the investigation and consider objections. In terms of regulations, that’s basically a snap decision, considering these regulations need to take into account the market share and applicable restrictions in 27 different countries.
If Apple’s messenger market share doubles for some reason next month, and they do cross the threshold, they’ll have to have iMessage open to third parties before Christmas. It’s really not that big a deal.
It’s not about the explosive growth (or not) of iMessage. It’s a matter of fact about the legal foothold that Apple now holds. That won’t be dislodged anytime soon. Whether or not Apple can get any market growth moving forward, now the EU will have to re-file any efforts to this ruling to them in the future should they try. That is a big deal. And nothing anyone in trying in the EU will move forward anything near the weight this attempt did. 
What legal foothold, exactly? The conclusion that their messaging service isn’t important enough to negatively affect the market?
If they don’t grow, the EU won’t need to do anything, because the status quo remains.
The commission that did the initial market research is legally obligated to continuously monitor markets. This isn’t a one-off thing, nor was it an “attempt” at anything. If the EU wanted iMessage to be opened up, they would’ve written the law better.
The DMA is a law to protect against de-facto gatekeepers, and iMessage just isn’t important enough to be called a gatekeeper.
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