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I think they have so much technical debt that if they tried to move away from their current stack, it would be the end of them, almost overnight. They don’t have the manpower and know-how to move to Unreal or Unity or otherwise. If they did, they would have done so by now.
I don’t see a technical debt problem getting any better by ignoring the problem for longer. No better time to start than when they’ve got Microsoft’s war chest to help aid the transition.
That’s fair enough, but then they shouldn’t make a game blatantly unsuited to the tech they do have. Just make another Morrowind with a fresh coat of paint like they’ve been doing for the last twenty years. It’s what the fans want anyway.